7 November, 2024 16:17
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, called President Donald Trump’s victory hours before major media networks made projections, highlighting the accuracy of market-driven insights.
By midnight EST, Polymarket indicated a 97% chance of Trump winning, well ahead of news outlets like CNN and the New York Times, which delayed calls on key swing states.
According to Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi, this early prediction highlights a notable difference between market-driven forecasts and traditional media approaches.
Divergence
Qureshi noted that before election night, Polymarket’s odds for Trump had already diverged from mainstream poll-based models, which estimated the race as nearly even at 50/50.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s assessment gave Trump a 62% edge, a figure that drew skepticism from media analysts — many of whom attributed it to potential platform bias and wash trading.
However, as results emerged, Polymarket’s odds tracked closely with the actual outcome, signaling what Qureshi called the “capacity of market-based forecasts to capture trends” not always reflected in polling data.
Polymarket’s $3.6 billion in election trades highlight its wide user base, which includes diverse participants, from hedge funds to individual political observers. Its decentralized setup allows users to react to live updates immediately, contrasting with the extended analysis and narrative-driven coverage typical of traditional networks.
Early results showing Trump’s gains in non-competitive states led Polymarket traders to conclude that similar trends would likely appear in swing states, setting the platform’s odds far ahead of media forecasts. By 12:51 A.M., while mainstream news networks continued monitoring vote counts, Polymarket had effectively declared the race.
Gaps in traditional polling
According to Qureshi, this election highlighted gaps in traditional polling, which placed greater emphasis on prior models and reputation.
He noted that Polymarket’s user-based, real-time analysis absorbed data quickly, considering factors like Trump’s previous polling performance in past elections, often attributed to the “Shy Trump Voter” effect.
Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan, noted that Trump’s campaign team tracked Polymarket’s odds to assess election night trends. The platform’s decentralized structure allowed it to move without the influence of network narratives, prioritizing outcome accuracy over extended dramatization.
For many voters and election watchers, Polymarket’s early projection highlights the role of prediction markets as tools for real-time insights, offering an alternative to media coverage.
This election showcased prediction markets’ potential to reshape how people access and interpret critical event outcomes, positioning platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as part of the evolving landscape in real-time forecasting.
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